Does a mission on a manifest count as completed launch demand?

Manifested demand vs completed launch

The short answer

No. Intended, reserved, manifested, scheduled, launched, and completed are separate states. A manifest is useful demand evidence, but realized cadence requires launch and mission-result confirmation.

Verified · verified Aug 12, 2026 · revision 1

How it works

1
Intent is announced
A customer or provider states a plan without necessarily identifying a firm slot or contract.
2
Demand reaches a manifest or reservation
The mission is associated with a provider or campaign, but vehicle, date, and conditions may still move.
3
A schedule becomes observable
A target date or window is published and can be revised, delayed, or removed.
4
Execution is confirmed
Launch, orbit or trajectory, deployment, and customer confirmation establish progressively stronger realized states.

Launch demand funnelCount every mission once in its latest verified state and preserve prior state revisions.Unit: mission count by exact state

01intended
02reserved
03manifested
04scheduled
05launched
06payload outcome confirmed

Specialist terms, in plain English

Manifested: Listed for a provider, vehicle, or campaign; not proof that the mission flew.
Scheduled: Assigned a public target date or window that remains revision-prone.
Launched: Liftoff occurred; later mission milestones may still be pending.
Completed: The defined launch and payload outcome was confirmed by the relevant source.

Common misread

Summing future manifest entries as completed annual cadence or guaranteed provider revenue.

Exact distinctions

Intended ≠ Manifested: General intent does not identify the same provider or campaign commitment.
Manifested ≠ Scheduled: A manifest association can exist without a firm public date.
Scheduled ≠ Completed: A date is a plan; completion requires execution evidence.

Examples from snapshot evidence

These are observed or reported examples from the dated publication. This explainer introduces no estimate or forecast unless it is explicitly labeled in the source object.

Mission PolSIR 1 scheduled NET June 2027 for NASA

The latest primary record shows: Rocket Lab recorded “Mission PolSIR 1 scheduled NET June 2027 for NASA”. The previous Radar state was Observed mission polsir 1 scheduled net june 2027 for nasa.

Inspect the stable record